Japanese iPhone survey indicates massive demand - Part I

With just four days to go before the iPhone hits Japan, everyone is wondering whether the locals will snap up the device or leave it sitting on shelves. What do surveys tell us?

An earlier survey by iShare wasn't too helpful, suggesting that "only" 9% of Japanese had plans to buy. But that survey has to be ignored: it polled a small sample size before the iPhone 3G – and any plans for Japan – were even announced. (Even so, 9% of people stating they'll buy last-year's version of a single model phone, one not even available yet, is arguably an indicator of surprisingly high demand!)

Kakaku.com, Japan's well-known gadget price-comparison site, conducted its own web survey of 7963 site members (90% male, 10% female) from June 19 to 25, after the iPhone 3G announcement and during the week that details of the Apple-SoftBank Mobile partnership came to light on June 23. That means all respondents had opportunity to learn about the iPhone itself, but not all knew details of its pricing or of SoftBank's involvement. Thus, while the survey results are perhaps the best indicator we have right now of Japanese buyers' intentions, responses concerning pricing and attitudes toward SoftBank have to be discounted somewhat.

The discussion below places respondents into the "buyer" segment (those who replied they've already pre-ordered an iPhone, will definitely do so, or intend to do so) and the "considering" segment (those who are considering purchase). Together these two groups make up the "positive" segment. Everyone else is in the "negative" segment (those who replied they won't buy or don't know about the iPhone). Numbers below are rounded to the nearest percentage.

51% will or might get an iPhone

That's the biggest headline coming out of this survey. Respondents in the "positive" camp numbered 51%. The "buyer" camp alone was 18% of respondents, double the equivalent number in the earlier iShare survey. (Of the 49% "negative" respondents, a fair chunk - 7% vs 42% - haven't heard of the iPhone; some of these could be future buyers as well.)

Of respondents using non-SoftBank carriers, over 14% are on the "buyer" list, and over 31% the "considering" list, totaling 46% "positive". In other words, DOCOMO, au, and WILLCOM need to fear for nearly half of their customers as possible defectors to SoftBank. (To put context on that 46% figure, a survey by Kakaku last summer on the MNP (Mobile Number Portability) system found only about 20% of users pondering a carrier change. It would appear that the iPhone is kicking the potential carrier switcher market into high gear.)

Looking at "positive" results more closely by intent and by carrier:

DOCOMO customers: 15% "buyer", 32% "considering" (total 47% "positive")
au customers: 13% "buyer", 31% "considering" (total 44% "positive")
WILLCOM customers: 19% "buyer", 24% "considering" (total 43% "positive")
SoftBank customers: 31% "buyer", 39% "considering" (total 70% "positive")

But are people switching phones or just adding one? Among all "positive" respondents, 31% are thinking of adding an iPhone to their existing unit, which must be some relief to current carriers. The other 69% want to replace their current phone altogether.

Those numbers are a bit skewed by existing "positive" SoftBank customers, a full 80% of whom will or may trade their current SoftBank model for an iPhone. Numbers for "positive" users of non-SoftBank carriers are pretty consistent: around 36% will or may add an iPhone as a second phone, while around 64% will or may go all iPhone.

To the extent that the survey indicates real buying intentions, those numbers have to seriously scare the non-SoftBank carriers. If 46% of their users are in the iPhone "positive" camp, and about 64% of those users are willing to switch carriers altogether, simple math suggests 29% of the carriers' customers will or may jump ship to SoftBank, just for the iPhone!

Who wants an iPhone? Teens are first

Who wants an iPhone the most? Under-20 respondents led the charge, with almost 30% of their numbers in the "buyer" segment; beyond that, numbers changed little for respondents in their 20s to 50s, with a little under 20% of those respondents in the "buyer" segment.

Why the extra interest among students/teens? One reason, says Kakaku, is lower resistance to switching carriers when the phone isn't used for work. Another reason is the high existing user base for SoftBank among teens, thanks to the company's low-priced service plans.

On the other hand, about a quarter of the 20s-and-up "buyer" crowd has already ordered an iPhone, while none of the teen crowd has done so. The lesson that I'll draw from that: With age comes the foresight – or the cash – to pre-order.

Features, design, and interface are key

Why iPhone? Kakaku says that the "newness" of the big touch panel, a change from the tired-and-true mobile phone number pad, is an attraction for many. Respondents in the "positive" camp gave their reasons as:

"interesting features" (63%)
"good design" (39%)
"easy-to-use interface" (39%)
"I like Apple products" (27%)
"it's noted around the world" (21%)
"I like new things" (17%)

What do users look forward to doing with their new iPhones? Looking at the "positive" crowd again, music rated highest, which is no surprise where the iPod sibling is concerned. Eagerly anticipated actions or functions include:

"listening to music" (60%)
"touch panel navigation" (56%)
"watching video" (48%)
"browsing web sites" (46%)
"GPS maps" (37%)
"web applications" (33%)
"mail" (31%)
"taking/viewing photos" (25%)
"voice" (23%)
"iTunes WiFi music store" (22%)
"schedule management" (22%)
"SMS messaging" (6%)

It's interesting that video viewing scored higher than web browsing: video-on-the-go, including the iPhone's well-known friendliness with YouTube, is a big draw for users. Kakaku also notes that GPS, while already appearing in cell phones, gains new attractiveness for users with a screen large enough to make maps useful.

Overall, Kakaku sees a high value placed on the iPhone not so much as a "mobile phone" but as a compact Internet terminal with a big screen, "real" browser, and other ancillary features exceeding a mobile phone's. This view is supported by the relatively low priority placed on voice in the results above, as well as the high number of respondents who want the iPhone as a second mobile despite its considerable monthly fees.